The problem with most business advice

I’ve learned to judge advice by its fit to my circumstances, not by its source.

A former neighbour of mine is an emergency physician. He’s one of those doctors who jumps in a helicopter when someone in a remote location needs urgent medical help.

I once asked him, “How do you decide what to do when you’ve only got minutes to diagnose and save a life?”

He told me: “It’s pattern recognition.”

Human bodies are remarkably similar. Yes, we have genders and some have chronic conditions, but for the most part, they work the same way.

If I was injured in a remote location and he gave me advice, I’d be certain it would help save my life. Because he’s seen it before or been taught exactly what to do.

But businesses aren’t like bodies. They evolve constantly. Markets and laws shift, processes change, skills and tech are replaced. The patient is never the same.

That’s why business advice that worked even a just a few short years ago might be irrelevant today. AI is rapidly reshaping the world of advice. Models can evolve faster than people’s experience can.

Advice is just a prediction of what the future will be if you take certain actions. The most trustworthy advice I've found is based on experience directly relevant to your circumstances, not from a familiar source.

As the American writer Mark Twain said a century ago, “It’s not what you know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for sure that ain’t so.”

Before you act on advice in the future, ask: How well do they know the patient? Then go check with AI because models are evolving faster than experience.

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