Counterfactual thinking saved the Apollo 13 crew

Ever heard of counterfactual thinking?

It helped save the crew of Apollo 13 and is one of the most powerful yet underused tools in problem solving and innovation.

Counterfactual thinking is the practice of asking “What could have been?” or “What might happen if things were different?” not to dwell on the past, but to uncover hidden causes, surface overlooked opportunities, and test ideas before committing resources.

Instead of asking “Why did this go wrong?” you ask “What would have happened if we’d acted differently?” This shift reveals the real levers behind outcomes and prevents repeating mistakes.

NASA used it brilliantly during Apollo 13, when an oxygen tank explosion turned a routine mission into a crisis. Engineers imagined countless “what if” scenarios, testing each in simulations until they found a solution, that brought the crew home safely.

The same mindset drives innovative thinking.

By imagining alternate realities, “What if customers used our product or experienced our service in a completely different way?”, teams can discover unmet needs and design new creative solutions.

The key to using counterfactual thinking effectively is structured exploration.

Where you focus on realistic alternatives, identify critical decision points, and translate these into useful insights and actions.

Used intentionally, counterfactual thinking transforms pressure into possibility and helps create the right solutions under extreme pressure.